What Happened to the Republican and Conservative Majority

By Guest Columnist Dick Posthumus, Former Lt. Governor

We now have had six months to absorb the results of the 2006 election. There have been many thoughts, evaluations, and analyses of what happened. There are those who believe the country no longer has a majority of people with conservative views. There are those who think the Republican Party was too conservative, and others who think the Democrats had a better idea.

This is the view of a simple farmer (and now also a manufacturer) with twenty years of public service who loves this country and this state.

The majority of people in this country and especially in Michigan still generally have a conservative view of the world. The proof I would put forward on this is that: 1) The most conservative ballot initiative in Michigan was the “Michigan Civil Rights Initiative”. Agree with it or not, it passed with a large majority; 2) Many of the new Democrats elected to the U.S. Congress and U.S. Senate (and in Michigan) were from the more conservative wing of the Democrat Party.

The Republican Party has not gotten too conservative, but instead has lost some of its direction and identity. I will discuss that in depth in a moment

The liberals and Democrat Party did not win more elections this year because they had better ideas. My proof on this is: Name more then one idea that liberals and the Democrat Party stood for in 2006 - They didn’t have any. They ran on two things: 1) Nationally, they ran on the idea that Republicans made a mess of the Iraq war and 2) In Michigan and in the nation, they just ran against Republicans. Both were successful this year, but neither puts forward a new vision for Michigan or the U.S. They are negative ideas, not positive.

So if the majority of citizens still have a conservative view, if the Republican Party hasn’t become too conservative, and if the Democrats didn’t have better ideas, what happened? I don’t think it is that complicated.

People were mad at the war, mad at the lack of leadership in Congress, and mad at the corruption.

I am not smart enough to know the answer to the Iraq war. I do believe, however, Republicans made a mistake in setting the expectations on this. There was the view that this was going to be over in a few months. The fact is people of all faiths, including Muslims, will be battling this radical, terrorist form of religious extremism for a number of decades before it is resolved. This has risen from time to time throughout history and it takes a generation to solve. It is to my children and grandchildren’s generation what the battle against Communism was to my parents and my generation.

When a party is in power for a period of years it can have the tendency to become more interested in maintaining that power then leading based on a vision and ideas. That happened to the Democrats and the "Roosevelt coalition" in the 70s and 80s. And to some degree that happened on a national level to Republicans in the last four years. This led the Republican leadership to not take steps against other members who abused their power. Don’t forget Republicans won control of the U.S. Congress because the Democrats had abused their power in the 70s and 80s making deals with lobbyists, etc. Is it any wonder the public was mad at Republicans because they allowed some of their members (allow a small number) to do the same thing?

Despite all of this, however, I think the most important mistake Republicans in Washington and in Michigan made was forgetting who we were. We became the majority because we represent a coalition of the working/middle class. The GOP coalition put together by President Reagan, Speaker Newt Gingrich, and others is made up of three groups - Economic Conservatives (traditional Ford/Dole Republicans most interested in helping to grow business and creating jobs), Social Conservatives (religious conservatives represented by people like Bill Bennet and Senator Brownback emphasizing issues like abortion, marriage, private education, family etc.), and the Cultural Conservatives (the Reagan Democrats or Blue Collar Republicans - found in larger numbers in Macomb, Monroe and UP Counties and most interested in tax cuts for their family, family issues, and good jobs). Together this coalition is a majority in America and in Michigan. Without all three groups, a majority is not possible!

Most people (especially the media) confuse the last two groups, throwing them together. They talk about two groups making up the Republican coalition. That is a huge mistake. Those two groups, and in fact all three groups have some differing characteristics (as identified above). Republicans must lead, communicate and work on issues that are important to all three parts of the coalition.

In the 2006 election Republicans generally did well with Economic Conservatives and Social Conservatives. It was Cultural Conservatives (blue collar, working families) they lost. The Cultural Conservatives didn’t see the GOP as representing them anymore. In Washington when the GOP talked about tax cuts, they talked primarily about capital gains and inheritance taxes. In Lansing the GOP talked primarily about SBT and Personal Property Taxes. While these cuts are important economically, working families generally don’t relate to them. As a result, Republicans were perceived (with the Democrats help) as representing only the wealthy. So Republicans had trouble maintaining their broader conservative identity in Lansing as well as in Washington, DC.

Republicans must and can change this with a broader economic vision for Michigan. That is why I believe strongly that, for both economic reasons as well as political reasons, the Michigan Republicans need to change their discussion on the economic/budget crises facing this state. Republicans and conservatives must first talk about the crises facing the families and working people of Michigan, not the State Government. Let the liberal Democrats defend government. Republicans must defend the citizens. They must make cutting property taxes, and even possibly, income taxes for the families and the workers a part of the whole SBT discussion. They must lead with this economic vision along with cutting government. That is a vision that unites all of the Republican coalition, a large majority of Michigan citizens, and is the basis for a vision for tomorrow.

Dick Posthumus
Lt. Governor of Michigan 1999-2003
Senate Majority Leader 1991-1999